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	<title>Comments on: Trades with Too Much Complexity</title>
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	<link>http://blog.firebones.com/2009/02/17/trades-with-too-much-complexity/</link>
	<description>Code.  Money.  Literature.</description>
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		<title>By: fortune8</title>
		<link>http://blog.firebones.com/2009/02/17/trades-with-too-much-complexity/comment-page-1/#comment-432</link>
		<dc:creator>fortune8</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2009 12:04:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.firebones.com/?p=283#comment-432</guid>
		<description>Nice work! Like I said, if you have a conviction, they stick by it. I let mine go too soon on $ESI $APOL short.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nice work! Like I said, if you have a conviction, they stick by it. I let mine go too soon on $ESI $APOL short.</p>
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		<title>By: firebones</title>
		<link>http://blog.firebones.com/2009/02/17/trades-with-too-much-complexity/comment-page-1/#comment-431</link>
		<dc:creator>firebones</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Feb 2009 00:18:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.firebones.com/?p=283#comment-431</guid>
		<description>I haven&#039;t yet.  I would have avoided a 100% loss on all my USO calls, and probably saved some bad moves with GOOG calls.  What&#039;s hard to tell is how many times I would have been stopped out on trades for which I averaged down--I think it probably would have been close to a push.  If I could find a good source of historical bid-ask on options, I could figure it out.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;A great example is my recent X puts.  I bought a batch at @ 3.10, then another  @ 2.10.  Soon after the second buy, the bid-ask was something like 1.65-1.80 at one point (which would have triggered a 40% stop on the initial batch).  I held, and later sold both lots at 3.10 for a 23% overall gain.  I count that as one win of around 47% on the second batch, and a loss of transaction costs on the second batch.  Had I stopped at 40% loss and ended the same way (i.e., held the 2.10 batch until 3.10), the overall trade would have been an overall -2% loss.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;I repeated that pattern several times, averaging down on puts and calls for AMZN, SPY, NDAQ, BBY, etc.  A tighter stop on the X trade would have stopped me out of both trades for a 20% loss.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;My strategy would be totally different if holding stocks though, or in times of more normal volatility.  I would then go with tight stops and be satisfied with a 40% win percentage.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;3:1 is crazy--even factoring out the 15 in a row at the start, it&#039;s still about 2:1.  The only thing I can say is that I was short on 85-90% of my trades during a time where there was a 30%+ drop in the market, so execution had little to do with it...it was primarily due to being on the right side of the trends.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I haven&#39;t yet.  I would have avoided a 100% loss on all my USO calls, and probably saved some bad moves with GOOG calls.  What&#39;s hard to tell is how many times I would have been stopped out on trades for which I averaged down&#8211;I think it probably would have been close to a push.  If I could find a good source of historical bid-ask on options, I could figure it out.</p>
<p>A great example is my recent X puts.  I bought a batch at @ 3.10, then another  @ 2.10.  Soon after the second buy, the bid-ask was something like 1.65-1.80 at one point (which would have triggered a 40% stop on the initial batch).  I held, and later sold both lots at 3.10 for a 23% overall gain.  I count that as one win of around 47% on the second batch, and a loss of transaction costs on the second batch.  Had I stopped at 40% loss and ended the same way (i.e., held the 2.10 batch until 3.10), the overall trade would have been an overall -2% loss.</p>
<p>I repeated that pattern several times, averaging down on puts and calls for AMZN, SPY, NDAQ, BBY, etc.  A tighter stop on the X trade would have stopped me out of both trades for a 20% loss.</p>
<p>My strategy would be totally different if holding stocks though, or in times of more normal volatility.  I would then go with tight stops and be satisfied with a 40% win percentage.</p>
<p>3:1 is crazy&#8211;even factoring out the 15 in a row at the start, it&#39;s still about 2:1.  The only thing I can say is that I was short on 85-90% of my trades during a time where there was a 30%+ drop in the market, so execution had little to do with it&#8230;it was primarily due to being on the right side of the trends.</p>
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		<title>By: mandelbrot1</title>
		<link>http://blog.firebones.com/2009/02/17/trades-with-too-much-complexity/comment-page-1/#comment-430</link>
		<dc:creator>mandelbrot1</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Feb 2009 20:55:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.firebones.com/?p=283#comment-430</guid>
		<description>If over 5 months your winners outnumber your losers 3 to 1 that is exceptional! Did you go back and see what your profits would have been with various stop levels or different criteria for closing your positions?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If over 5 months your winners outnumber your losers 3 to 1 that is exceptional! Did you go back and see what your profits would have been with various stop levels or different criteria for closing your positions?</p>
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