A late day rally and gains of around 5% on 12/31 in both Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) propelled me to second place in the 2008 Family Stock Picking Contest by the thinnest of margins.
| Berkshire Hatha Class B Ord Shs | -32.14% |
| Mindray Medical International Ltd | -57.27% |
| PowerShares Water Resource Portfolio | -32.57% |
| Buffalo Wild Wings Inc | +10.47% |
| Mueller Water Products Series A Ord Shs | -10.71% |
| Central European Distribution Corp | -66.08% |
| Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp | -46.79% |
| Grant Prideco Inc | +3.39% |
Overall, my 8 picks were down 34.47% on the year, edging out Mrs Firebones (down 35%) but trailing Firebones’ Niece-in-Law (down 30.6%) and crushing Firebones Jr (down 45.88%) and the Nephew (down an amazing 65.18%). Overall, the aggregate picks were down 42.23%. Worst picks: the Nephew’s VympelKom OAO (down 80.02%).
The only winning stocks picked this year? The Niece’s PetMed Express (PETS) up 45.7%, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) up 10.47%, and Grant Prideco, which managed to be acquired earlier this year for a 3.39% appreciation.
My real portfolio was down 26.72% this year. I would have been down around 33%, but starting in mid-September, I became a much more active trader, executing a number of swing trades in AAPL and SPY puts that made up a lot of ground.
Currently, I’m insanely short and hedged; a January rally is probably going to hurt me more than a January panic will. I have the suspicion that this year, we’ll see a very thinly traded zigzag rally up about 10-12% in the first quarter, followed by a much higher volume decline over the remainder of the year, as much as an additional 25-30% off that high.
This year’s contest picks, being submitted as we speak, will be up shortly.
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