Turkey Day Update for the Family Stock Picking Contest

And the PETS shall lead them

A long time since the last update—very busy with work and the vacation days and weekends have been spent trying to salvage some alpha by putting cash to work in very aggressive daytrading behaviors which have netted around 110% return on a very small amount of cash, mainly through a combination of swing trading AAPL and hedging the rest of my shredded long portfolio with SPY puts.  More details on my foray into trading in a future post.

But the family stock picking contest is in need of an update, just to humble all idiot retail investors like me who think that individual stock picking combined with a buy and hold strategy makes sense in the long run.  Of the 40 stocks selected by the 5 participants, only one is in the black: PetsMed Express (PETS +48.18%).

I happen to be in a close second in the contest now, with my eight picks (BRK.B, MR, PHO, BWLD, MWA, CEDC, CTSH, GRP) down only 37.88%; the worst participant, identified only as “The Nephew” is down a miserable 69.06% on the heels of his -5% performance last year.

The quick rundown from top to bottom:

In the lead

The Nephew’s Bride (pets fxi vlo nvs pep wfmi fpl ba) -37.79%.  PETS is up an amazing 48.18%, but this can’t offset FXI (China) being down 84.4%, and Whole Foods (WFMI)  down 74.07%.

Me: (stocks—see above) -37.88%.  I’m basically getting killed due to a combination of Buffet’s financial exposure and my global exposure (what I thought was a lesson learned last year).  Best stock: Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD: -1.12%).  Grant Prideco was acquired for a combination of cash (yeehaw) and Valero stock (booooo!) in April; that didn’t help.

Berkshire Hatha Class B Ord Shs	-26.12%
Mindray Medical International Ltd	-57.92%
PowerShares Water Resource Portfolio	-36.54%
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc	-1.12%
Mueller Water Products Series A Ord Shs	-35.29%
Central European Distribution Corp	-59.30%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp	-43.43%
Grant Prideco Inc	-43.34%

Middle of the Pack

Mrs Firebones (down 40.15% with AET DE ARG CVS NTDOY AAPL COST GMCR) got creamed due to Aetna and Deere (each down around 62%).  Retail exposure hurt as well, although some of the quality stocks held up okay relative to the market.

Firebones Jr (down 51.48% with CERN ADDYY VIA.B PEP SNS TWX SCHL PIE) has one down 67% (PIE—picked solely because the ticker symbol was PIE).  I like his chances to improve before the end of the year through strength in Scholastic.

Bringing Up the Rear

The Nephew (down 69.06% on bidu isrg fwlt vip cmg stp nov rimm).  Suntech is down 89%; when your best stock (ISRG) is down 58.97%, it’s hard to dig yourself out of the hole.  Quick analysis is that this is overexposed to energy at the height of that market; looking at it another way, the double whammy of oil falling from $140/barrel and the falling dollar crushed him.

Overall

Overall the combined portfolios are down 47.17%, compared to a positive return of 15.82% last year.  There is not a single major index that the combined portfolio is beating.  My picks happen to be beating the S&P, the NYSE Composite and most of the international indices, but trailing the three Dow Jones averages (Industrial, Transportation and Utilities).